Editorial Desk
Headline, core and supercore inflation explained
Inflation reports show several numbers. Here is what each means, using September 2026 data. Headline All items, including food and energy: 3.7% from a year earlier. It is what…
CPI vs PCE: why the Fed watches a different inflation number
The Fed's 2% target is defined using the PCE price index, not the CPI that makes headlines. Both measure consumer inflation but differ in important ways. Definitions CPI, from…
Stagflation: what it is and whether 2026 looks like it
Stagflation means weak growth, high unemployment and high inflation at the same time. It is unusual because the usual policy tools conflict: fighting inflation with higher rates…
What is the federal funds rate, in plain English
The federal funds rate is the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans of reserves. The Federal Open Market Committee sets a target range for it, currently 3.75%…
A Fed without forward guidance: what Kevin Warsh changed
Kevin Warsh became Fed Chair in 2026. At the July 29 meeting, his second as chair, the Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on a 9 3 vote, and the statement no longer included…
Democrats win Congress: what history says about markets and elections
The US midterm elections on November 3 gave Democrats control of Congress. Coverage on November 4 and 5 linked the outcome to a rally in tech stocks and a drop in oil, on…
Bitcoin slips below $76,000 as ETF outflows return
Bitcoin fell below $76,000 on November 5 and 6, as US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs recorded about $530 million in combined net outflows, according to CoinGape. Bitcoin ended…
Mortgage rates near 7%: refinance, wait or rent?
Mortgage rates remain near 7%. Zillow's average 30 year fixed was 7.04% on November 5, down 6 basis points from the day before. Bankrate's weekly lender survey put the average at…
Oil, the Iran war and your wallet
Oil sits behind most of this year's inflation story. The US war with Iran lifted crude prices, which flowed into gasoline and the consumer price index. From crude to the pump…
Gold is down about 30% from its January record: what happened
Gold hit a record near $5,595 an ounce in January 2026. By October 30 it had fallen to a one year low of $3,869.85, roughly 30% below the peak, then recovered to about $4,100 on…
October jobs report beat forecasts: why good news moved rate expectations
The October jobs report, published November 6, came in stronger than forecast. Reported figures: 165,000 jobs added against roughly 65,000 expected, with unemployment at 4.1%.…
What the VIX is, and why it jumped this week
The VIX is a number published by Cboe that estimates how much the S&P 500 is expected to move over the next 30 days, based on prices of S&P 500 options. It is often…