Gold is down about 30% from its January record: what happened

Gold hit a record near $5,595 an ounce in January 2026. By October 30 it had fallen to a one-year low of $3,869.85, roughly 30% below the peak, then recovered to about $4,100 on November 5.

The rise

Gold rallied through late 2025 and January on rate-cut hopes, a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand.

The fall

Markets then priced higher rates for longer, and Fed hikes arrived. Gold pays no interest, so when yields rise, holding it costs more in forgone income. Demand in Asia was also described as muted.

Rates and the dollar

Gold tends to trade inversely to real yields and the dollar. The early-November rebound came as the dollar and Treasury yields eased and oil fell.

Forecasts

Citi's Max Layton argued lower oil could revive gold, with targets of $4,500 and $5,000. Goldman was reported to have cut its year-end forecast to $4,150 (a single-source report). Forecasts differ widely and often miss.

Is gold still a hedge?

It has hedged some shocks, but not inflation in 2026: prices were rising while gold fell. Gold is a volatile asset, so size any position with that in mind.

Educational content, not investment advice. Figures as reported on November 9, 2026; check primary sources before acting.