Fed holds at 3.75%-4% but markets expect another hike in December

The Fed's October 28 meeting ended with rates unchanged at 3.75% to 4%. The vote was 10-2, so two members wanted a different outcome.

What a split vote tells you

Dissents show where the committee's debate sits. When members disagree, markets read the decision as less settled and become more sensitive to the next data release.

What markets are pricing

As of November 5, CME's FedWatch tool put the probability of a December hike at about 83%, according to InvestingLive. FedWatch is not a forecast by the Fed. It converts futures prices into implied probabilities, and those probabilities can swing within days.

Scenarios for December

Hot inflation and strong jobs: a hike becomes more likely.
Cooler inflation or weaker hiring: the Fed can pause again.
Falling oil: easier energy pressure gives the committee room to wait.

What it means for you

If you carry variable-rate debt, assume costs may rise and consider whether paying it down is worth more than the return on cash. If you hold savings, check whether your account follows market rates. Avoid building a plan around a single probability reading.

Educational content, not investment advice. Figures as reported on November 9, 2026; check primary sources before acting.